To understand how law of averages impacts gambling and the gambler’s mindset, let us take this example. You have expert knowledge on Omaha, a Poker Game and have been winning heads up for 20 consecutive days. You have raked in about $10,000 from your winning proceeds and that encourages you to bet the entire amount on the 21st play day at the casino. As your confidence is sky high due to your previous successes, you start dealing your cards and within one hour you realize that you have lost the entire amount. If you are wondering what made it happen, possibly the law of averages caught up with you. Playing Law of Averages is an interesting yet semi-mythical concept which attributes to forecasting of results on a certain day.



First, let us understand Law of Averages









To do this, let us assume we throw a six numbered die 100 times. The probability that the number six will land on the throw of the die is about 16% which means out of 100 times, the number six will land 16 times. Analyzing this, the number six will land on the die once every 6 throws of the die. As per law of averages, this fact is merely an extrapolation of what happens in real life. One could have two consecutive throws of six on the die and go the next 10 throws without a six showing up. All this indicates that Law of Averages is good for statistical data but attributing the occurrence of a certain event to antecedent events is a mistake.



Attributing Law of Averages to gambling in casinos



Most of the games played in casinos require a high level of skill and strategy. Those games rule out of our discussion on playing law of averages with casinos. There are certain games like the Blackjack and the Roulette which have a high riding luck factor for players to play the game. Individuals need to know that the probability of the winning number being stuck on the roulette board is fraught with permutations and probability.



For example, the chances for you hitting a winning stroke on a Roulette Board is 1/37 that equates to 0.02. This means that for every Roulette Spin, your chances of winning is about 0.02. In such a scenario, how would you know which number to be bet on in the game of Roulette. You could take historical data to find out which number has possibly been on the winning list most of the occasions. But be rest assured, the next Roulette Spin may not yield the result you were expecting.



Is Playing Law of Averages with Casinos a rubbish concept?



It is not entirely nonsensical to consider playing law of averages with casinos. Law of Averages does provide a good extrapolation to an event based on historical data. Unless the event is structurally influenced your prediction of the outcome to an event will be a probability.



Playing Law of Averages with Casinos mean you have the liberty to say “ Number “x” is the winning number”. What it does not allow is for you to believe “If I bet on Number “x”, I will surely win”.

By: Cheralis Slocombe

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